After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, the collapse of Yugoslavia Federation in the late 1990s and the formation of the European Union in the early 2000s, there is no more singularity in the European dynamic equation. In the continent of America, Cuba is ready entering into a new post-Castro era. Some ripples of South America will not become a flash point. The Immigration issue, however difficult, is a backyard issue. The true flash points of the world are now concentrated in Asia. That is, the Asia security is the security issue of the world today.
There are two types of security issues, the visible flash points and the hidden currents under the surface. There are three visible flash points in Asia today.
A flash point can stay hot only if it gets enough fuel supply. Fighting fire is not the best way to put out the fire. To cut off its fuel supply is.
Israel - Arab conflict has two fuel sources;
In simple mathematical calculation, China needs 10 more years to assure that she will not be defeated by America militarily in a local conflict, and she needs 20 more years to be able to compete with America globally. That is, a few nice fire works to draw America's attention are doing nothing but all good for China (also Russia). Although China did not set the fire and the stage, but the opportunities are on her side.
If Iran becomes Iraq 2, America is sure to be bogged down there for 10 years, at least. If Iran can stay as an opposition power to the USA, she will be the controlling player in the Middle East.
Can America success in Afghanistan?
Can America success in Iraq?
America can never claim a final victory on these as long as there is a viable anti-America Iran. Many Middle East experts might have different view from mine. Their answer is depending upon the success of democracy in three countries, Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon. Of course, it is a hope. But, in reality, the insurgents are seemingly taking democracy as their safety cover, both in Iraq and in Lebanon. This is a war between the true democracy and the camouflaged insurgency. If the true democracy wins, Iran will fade into the background. Yet, with the recent event in Lebanon (Hezbollah), not only is the insurgency in Iraq encouraged but reached a new height.
At any rate, Iran can never fight against with America alone. Yet, she has some karma friends. Historically and geopolitically, Russia needs an independent Iran. To be a cheerleader of the opponent of the USA is seemingly a genetic trait of France now. China is the only pivot point of this America - Iran conflict. If China sides with Russia, Russia will harden her stand. If China sides with America, the chance to break the Shiah chain (Iran, Iraq,.., Lebanon) becomes possible. But, there is no incentive of any kind for China to side with America on this issue now. China needs oil. The Iranian oil to China is a real oil for China but could be a lifeline for Iran. In conclusion, if America cannot bring China to American side on this issue, this Middle East fire will go on for decades. The Iranian nuclear weapon issue is just an interesting episode of this bigger story. It is very difficult to imagine that Iran will jeopardize the big picture (described above) with a Nuke issue. Yet, the Iranian Nuke will be an issue for decades to come.
On the contrary, the North Korea fire is much less complicated than the Iranian issue. While every company has a mission statement, every country has some national goals. The goal of many nations is to provide a good living for her citizens. The goal of America is to defend the "sole superpower Status Quo" eternally, as claimed by President Bush. North Korea has two national goals.
The "Big Boy" technology is now 60 years old and is available online. A home-made (not supported by a state) "little boy" is now technologically possible. In a "Dollar" analogy, while everyone is able to make a Dollar, to be a billionaire is still an un-reachable dream for 99.9999..% of the people. Thus, the Nuke proliferation issue must be divided into two issues, the proliferation of the "Dollar carriers" and the proliferation of the "Billionaires."
Not only does a "Nuke Dollar" not carry any geopolitical weight but the Dollar carrier must shoulder heavy sanctions from the world. Most of the "Nuke Dollar" carriers are only looking for a vanity prestige. Thus, the Nuke Dollar rollback is more than possible. North Korea cannot go much beyond as a Dollar(s) carrier. Of course, when one Nuke device goes to the hand of terrorists, it will become an un-manageable problem.
In short, the Iranian Nuke has the intention to support an ideology and is much more troublesome than the North Korea Nuke. Furthermore, China does have a short dog leash on North Korea. At least, China is able to put one on North Korea if she wants to, and China did kick off a war game along the North Korea's boarder this August, 2006. The nature of North Korea issue is a problem of a rascal, and China has the necessary force to rein in this rascal if the needs arise. Yet, there is no incentive of any kind for China to do such a thing at this moment. For both Russia and China, North Korea issue is a nice chess game, and it will go on for a while.
In Quantum Dynamics, there are three very important concepts, and they can be very useful in describing the political issues.
Now, it is very safe to conclude that the true security issue of the world is not about the flash points but is the interplay of many dynamic equations.
This is the key issue for the Asia security. Besides the America herself, two major players on this issue are Japan and China. Of course, to discuss Japan and China in details is way beyond the scope of this short paper. But, one point is worthy of mention here.
For many scholars, Japan was Sinicized since Tang dynasty (around 600 a.d.).
Japan calls herself "Nippon" （ 日 本 ） . The meaning of these two Chinese characters is, "the home (land) of the Sun (god)," as the earliest ancestor of Mikado (the ancient sovereign of Japan) was identified with the sun. The Chinese phrase for Japan was （ 東 瀛 ） . As I mentioned often, the original meaning of a Chinese word or phrase can be read out from the word or the phrase directly. This Chinese name for Japan clearly carries a time mark which marks the first encounter (around 220 b.c.) between China and Japan. Of course, 99.9999% of native Chinese is no longer able to read out those information any more.
A few years ago, an artifact of Han dynasty (about 200 b.c.) was un-earthed in China. It is an oil lamp with three legs. Those three legs are three sumo fighters who carry the lamp on their shoulders. This finding has three meanings:
Theoretically, two twins can have different genetic traits if different genes were switched on or different switches were flapped for the same gene. Thus, Japanese culture and Chinese culture can be significantly different even though they two might have the identical genetic make-up. For any equation A at a world point B, that equation can result different answers for different sets of initial conditions or boundary conditions. It is not too difficult to whip up a geopolitical equation for a world event, but it is impossible to find the correct answer for that equation without knowing its correct initial conditions and correct boundary conditions. The different world views will definitely result different initial and boundary conditions. It takes true insights (on the soul of cultures) to know the initial and the boundary conditions for any given equation.
Superficially, there are a few flash points between China and Japan, such as the Daito island, the oil in the East China Sea, etc.. But, these issues will not become a world security issues. They will be enduring bickering points which are nice things to have in any geopolitical chess game. The biggest problem for East Asia security is the different world views between China and Japan and the possibility of America's insensitivity to this issue.
While Japan and China are, of course, two heavy weight variables for this East Asia security equation, ASEAN sits at the pivot point. If ASEAN sides with Japan, it will also be friendly to America as Japan is the linchpin for America's Asia policy, and China will be isolated. Although ASEAN is trying to maintain a neutral position sincerely in this equation, she might not be able to achieve her balance for the following reasons:
The disputes of some islands in the South China Sea are again bargaining chips of a geopolitical game and will not become a security issue. Laotze said:
In 1980s, Japan tried to promote her Yen to be as an Asian Currency but failed. Although officially ASEAN claimed that having an Asian Dollar is not her policy, the coming of an Asian Dollar will be an inevitable result for a true free trade East Asia. The length of this Asian Dollar pregnancy could be 10 years, 20 years or even longer, yet it will be born eventually. The point is that who will be her mother and who will be her father. Geologically, America will not be her mother. If America misses the chance to be the father of Asian Dollar, America will become an outsider of this Asian Dollar sphere.
The "Go game" is played with two colored stones, black and white. During the battles, black and white can be in a match for a long time. Yet, one single stone can change a balanced game to become a catastrophe for one side. This single stone is called "inversion stone" in Go game. The failed Soviet coup of August 1991 is a classic example of such an inversion stone event. The coming of the Asian Dollar will be a such inversion stone for the Security of Asia. Many signs and indicators show that China is now having an upper hand against other East Asia countries in this equation.
At any rate, ASEAN countries (except Vietnam) do not have any reason to dislike America. Thus, ASEAN becomes an indictor for America's East Asia Policy. If ASEAN sides with America, then the American East Asia policy has scored an A++. If ASEAN is distancing herself from America, then America needs a new East Asia policy.
Yet, China is bigger than the Asian Dollar. Her Central Asia pipeline enables her to play the Iranian game. The Shanghai cooperation organization is becoming an important factor for the security of Central Asia. Her new Beijing - Tibet railway can bring peace with India. China also carries a heavy weight on the war against terrorism, as not only is China a Central Asia country but is an important ally of Pakistan. Russia needs China's support if she wants to stay as a meaningful geopolitics player. Thus, China becomes an indictor for America's world security policy. If China sides with America, the America's sole superpower Status Quo will never be challenged, as there is no country besides China has the potential to do such a challenge. While there is seemingly no incentive of any kind for China to make such a choice (to side with America completely at this moment, it is possible in terms of Chinese history and of her culture. The point is how to fuo （ 服 ） China with an American China policy. Note: for the meaning of "fuo," please read "The Methodology on China Studies" at www.chinese-word-roots.org
As a cultural genetic twin of China, Japan seemingly does understand this possibility. Of course, it will be an vital importance for Japan that this possibility can never happen. There are two ways to achieve this Japanese goal.
This War-criminal worship is a design going much beyond destroying the Peace Constitution. It is a very important strategy for eradicating American military bases from Japan. Japan's design on this goal is now very clear, and it consists, at least, three steps.
Can America be expelled from East Asia? At least, Japan thinks so, and she has done a good job so far. The strategy is very simple, by expelling Japan from East Asia first, although not geologically. With the America's Japan policy today, Japan is able to re-define the spelling of two words.
It is not very hard to achieve this Japanese goal. Instead of learning from Germany to become a new reborn and trustworthy country, Japan tries to make every East Asia country to hate her. Since 1996, Japan has brought up some hate-issues intentionally.
Japan does have all the history on her side to stir up great hatred toward Japan from those East Asia countries. Serbs and Albanians co-existed peacefully over 600 years. Yet, a hatred of carrying out an ethnic cleansing act can be stirred up between them in a short year. However under-developed they are, the people of South East Asia countries do care deeply about the atrocities they suffered from Japan in the World War II, although they do not mention them with mouths any more. With the end of Cold War, their national securities are no longer depending upon the protection of America. However, there was no reason for them to dislike America. But, not only is the America's Japan policy (especially, as a blind on the War-criminal worshipping issue) an insult to their national dignities as their suffering was great and real but could be a true indictor of America's true nature, as those who tolerate evils could be evil-doers themselves. The opinion poll can never reflect the souls of people.
Is this a Hollywood story or a true Japan strategy? At least, this is a well-known sumo wrestling technique, pulling you out of the ring by falling out myself first.
There is a big difference between undoing the dog leashes by America or by Japanese themselves. When they are undone by Japanese themselves, Japan could reach three mis-calculations.
After 60 years of Japan surrender, America needs let go of Japan and let her become a normal nation. It is very possible that China will accept American military bases in China if those bases are friendly in nature, as China will be happy to use America's military power to keep an eye on Japan. This is not a dream. When it happens, America's sole superpower Status Quo will be challenged by no country any more.
The aboves are the snapshot of my views. Yet, these issues are dynamic in nature. That is, the Dynamics of these issues are more important than snapshots or views. A Dynamics is a methodology. It is beyond the scope of this paper.